More Asked

Defining pattern

This week, more was asked of workers and job seekers while the openings themselves were slow to appear. The Labor Department proposed that every unemployment claimant complete five job-search activities a week, as Gartner estimated that employers deferred creating 1.3 million jobs worldwide this year. Freelance clients are asking for broader bundles of skills, and the marketplace that published that research expanded its own staff cuts to about 37%. Employers are rewriting job descriptions around AI faster than they are adjusting pay, and IBM told visa-sponsored consultants to relocate or leave. On the other side of the ledger: New York workers gained the right to see their own personnel files, and Henrietta landed a plan for more than 860 manufacturing and engineering jobs. The common thread: the bar is moving, and it's worth knowing who is moving it.

011. Washington Proposes Five Job-Search Activities a Week to Collect Unemployment

On November 9, the U.S. Department of Labor proposed a national minimum work-search standard for unemployment insurance. Claimants would have to complete at least five qualifying work-search activities each week and report them before payment is issued. States could instead use a points system adding up to five qualifying activities. The proposal would also require states to tell claimants what the requirement is, and would bar states from giving formal or informal warnings to people who fall short. It was published in the Federal Register on November 10, and public comments are due 60 days after publication.

Today, requirements vary widely. CBS News reported that many states require two or three searches a week, some require only one, and just four require five. New York requires three activities a week, done on different days, and already counts some career center services toward the total. Idaho raised its requirement from two to five in 2024 and has since reported more claimants denied benefits for missing work-search rules, according to coverage of the proposal. Labor advocate Michele Evermore told CBS News the rule would be hard to meet for claimants who don't have five real options in a given week and could cost states hundreds of thousands of dollars to administer.

• Claimants would log five qualifying activities each week, up from New York's current three, before any payment goes out.
• States would be barred from giving warnings to claimants who miss the minimum.
• The 60-day comment period is open; this is a proposal, not a final rule.

The intent is faster reemployment, and the rule counts more than direct applications, including engagement with placement agencies and unions. But volume of activity isn't the same as access to openings, especially in a market where employers are deferring hires (story 2). The people most likely to struggle with the documentation are the ones career centers see every day: older workers, people with limited digital access, and claimants still building their English. For workforce organizations, this is worth a comment during the open period, and worth planning for: which of your workshops and services would count, and how claimants will prove it.

Impact: Emerging.

022. Gartner: The Jobs Being Lost to AI Matter Less Right Now Than the Jobs Never Posted

Gartner forecast on November 10 that AI will create 10.6 million jobs and remove 8.9 million worldwide by 2030, a net gain of 1.7 million. It projects that between 0.4% and 1.8% of workers will lose jobs directly to AI by 2030, while just over 20% (about 435.5 million people) will have to change what they do and how they do it. The finding that stands out is about 2026: Gartner said one of the year's biggest AI effects was executives deferring the creation and hiring of 1.3 million positions, alongside 2.2 million jobs lost and 1.6 million gained. It expects 5 million people to have experienced delayed hiring by 2030. "Deferred jobs are not the same as lost jobs. They simply aren't created," said Gartner's John Lovelock. Gartner also forecasts the public sector will lose 900,000 jobs and gain 400,000 by 2030.

• Gartner counts 1.3 million positions deferred in 2026, alongside 2.2 million jobs lost and 1.6 million gained.
• About 435.5 million workers worldwide will need to adapt their work by 2030, Gartner says.
• The public sector is the only area Gartner expects to shed more jobs than it gains.

These are proprietary global projections, not job counts, and the full methodology is for clients only. Still, "deferred" names something job seekers already feel: a position that never gets posted doesn't show up in layoff numbers or unemployment claims. That helps explain how layoffs can stay low while searches drag on.

Impact: Long-term, with effects on 2026 hiring now.

033. Closer to Home: TE Connectivity Plans More Than 860 Jobs in Henrietta; Aaru Plans 650 in New York City

Governor Hochul announced on November 12 that TE Connectivity will repurpose a vacant 135,000-square-foot former Sam's Club at 1600 Marketplace Drive in Henrietta into an advanced optical manufacturing and research facility, creating more than 860 jobs. The project costs more than $62 million, and Empire State Development is offering up to $22 million in performance-based Excelsior Jobs Tax Credits tied to those jobs. The site is expected to open in spring 2027, with manufacturing ramping up through 2031. Industry coverage says the facility will make fiber optic components for AI data centers, and plans call for engineering, manufacturing and management roles. Monroe County Executive Adam Bello described the plan as up to 866 jobs; Greater Rochester Enterprise credited the region's optics, photonics and imaging workforce.

A day later, the state announced that Manhattan-based AI company Aaru plans to grow from about 60 employees to more than 700 over five years, with up to $13.12 million in Excelsior credits offered in exchange for 650 jobs and $109 million in research spending. Roles will span software engineering, research, product, enterprise sales, client management and corporate operations.

• TE Connectivity's credits are performance-based: up to $22 million, paid only as the 860-plus jobs materialize.
• The Henrietta site opens spring 2027 and ramps up manufacturing through 2031.
• Aaru's 650 planned jobs include sales, client management and operations, not only engineering.

This is what AI demand looks like when it lands in Monroe County: not chatbots, but people building the optical parts data centers run on. Recent editions covered MCC's $5.4 million federal award for optics training, and this is the kind of employer that training is aimed at. These are planned jobs, not current openings, and the announcements don't say how many will be entry-level or open to applicants without degrees. For job seekers and career advisors, the 2027 opening date gives time to build the right skills now.

Impact: Emerging.

044. New York Workers Can Now Get a Copy of Their Personnel File

New York Labor Law Section 210-b took effect on November 8. It requires public and private employers of every size to give current and former employees a free, complete copy of their personnel records within five business days of a written request, up to twice a calendar year. Employers must notify workers within 10 days of placing information in their file that negatively affects their qualifications for employment, promotion, transfer or pay, and workers can dispute what the file says. Employers must keep complete records for three years after an employee leaves. Violations carry fines of $500 to $2,500, enforced by the New York Attorney General, and the law prohibits retaliation, with a private right of action for workers who face it. Law firms report that amendments are expected in 2027 to narrow which records count.

• Employers have five business days to hand over a complete copy, at no cost, up to twice a year.
• Workers must be told within 10 days when negative information goes into their file.
• Records must be kept for three years after an employee leaves, without deletions.

Law firm analyses note that "personnel record" is defined broadly, by whether a record is used to judge qualifications, promotion, pay or discipline, not by which folder it sits in. That likely reaches performance data kept in HR software, which matters as more evaluations are generated or scored by automated tools. For job seekers and workers, it's a practical right: before a reference check or a discipline meeting, you can now see what's in your file. For employers, the five-day clock means knowing where those records live.

Impact: Immediate.

055. AI Is Rebundling Freelance Work. The Marketplace That Studied It Is Cutting 37% of Its Own Staff.

On November 10, OpenAI and Upwork published joint research comparing ChatGPT activity with freelance demand on Upwork. In 43 of 63 matched work categories, activities that were relatively common in ChatGPT lost marketplace share while less common ones gained; 20 categories showed the reverse. The task mix inside AI-related job postings became 45% more diverse between early 2023 and late 2025, and AI-related projects carried larger fixed-price budgets and more hours, but similar posted hourly rates.

Two days later, Upwork disclosed that its board approved an expanded restructuring on November 10, bringing its total workforce reduction to about 37%, up from the 24% cut announced in May. Pretax restructuring charges are now estimated at $27 million to $37 million, and the plan should be substantially complete in the first quarter of 2027. Upwork didn't specify how many people the expansion affects.

• In 43 of 63 work categories, tasks people already do in ChatGPT lost share of Upwork postings.
• AI-related projects carried bigger budgets and more hours, but similar hourly rates.
• Upwork's total staff reduction is now about 37%, up from 24% announced in May.

These are two different groups of workers: freelancers selling services on the platform, and Upwork's own employees. But the same week tells both stories. For freelancers, the research suggests clients increasingly want complete deliverables that combine skills, and a bigger project budget isn't a raise if it comes with more hours. The research is company-authored and observational, so it shows patterns, not proof that ChatGPT caused them.

Impact: Immediate.

066. IBM Ends Visa and Green Card Sponsorship for Most Consulting Roles

IBM confirmed on November 10 that it will discontinue U.S. visa and green card sponsorship for the majority of roles in IBM Consulting, a division of more than 150,000 people worldwide. According to an internal document reported by Bloomberg, affected employees on sponsored visas can transfer to an IBM role outside the United States or leave the company by the end of 2026. An IBM spokesperson said participation in high-skilled visa programs had been declining for years and cited changes in skill availability and client needs. IBM hasn't said which roles are exempt, how many people are affected, or how it will handle pending green card cases.

• Sponsored workers in IBM Consulting face a choice: an IBM role abroad or leaving by year-end.
• The policy covers both H-1B sponsorship and the green card process, including PERM.
• IBM hasn't disclosed headcount, exempt roles, or the fate of pending cases.

For international graduates, large IT consultancies have long been a path from student work authorization to a long-term U.S. career. This narrows that path at one of the biggest. Losing employer sponsorship doesn't automatically end a person's current immigration status, but it can end the route forward, so anyone affected should get individual legal advice rather than rely on general coverage.

Impact: Immediate.

077. Mercor Doubles to a $20 Billion Valuation Paying Experts to Train AI

AI training company Mercor announced a $750 million Series D on November 10 at a $20 billion valuation, double the $10 billion it reached in October 2025. Investors included Nvidia, Salesforce, Benchmark and Felicis, and the round included an employee share sale; Mercor didn't say how much of the money is new capital. The company says it draws on a network of more than five million experts across hundreds of occupations, who evaluate and help train AI models and agents for AI labs and large companies. Reported revenue was $614 million in the first half of 2026.

• Mercor's valuation doubled in about 13 months, to $20 billion.
• The company says more than five million experts are in its network.
• Part of the round was an employee share tender, not new money.

The work being sold here is human judgment: lawyers, clinicians, accountants and other specialists grading what AI produces. For professionals, that's a real source of contract income. It's also contract work with no guarantee of hours, and it exists to make AI better at the tasks those experts do. Worth knowing about, and worth weighing carefully.

Impact: Emerging.

088. Employers Are Rewriting Jobs Around AI. Pay and Training Are Lagging. (Recurring Theme)

Payscale's full AI Workforce Impact Report, released November 10, draws on parallel August surveys of 500 employers and 1,000 employees. It found 61% of employers are rewriting job descriptions because of AI and 49% say their salary structures can't keep pace with AI-driven changes. Seventy-four percent of employers plan to invest in AI upskilling in the next 12 months, but only 29% of employees say their employer is making a clear investment in their development. Among employees, 56% say developing AI skills should bring higher pay, but 16% say their pay has gone up because of it, and 70% report no change. Forty-three percent of employees say AI saves them three or more hours a week; 19% say they use that time for more strategic work.

• 61% of employers are rewriting job descriptions around AI; 49% say salary structures can't keep up.
• 74% of employers plan AI upskilling; 29% of employees see a clear investment.
• 56% of employees think AI skills should pay more; 16% have seen a raise from them.

We covered this theme recently, with Oyster's finding that AI was being added to jobs without changing titles or pay, and Wharton's gap between how leaders and employees rate AI training. Payscale adds compensation data from a pay-benchmarking firm. The employer and employee samples are separate, so the gap shows a difference in perception, not what any one employer failed to do. For workers, a rewritten job description is evidence to bring to a pay conversation.

Impact: Immediate.

099. Fed Governor Barr: Little AI Displacement So Far, but Prepare for Young Workers to Feel It First

In a November 12 speech titled "American Inequality and the Future of AI," Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said AI has so far produced relatively little displacement, but urged policymakers to prepare for serious short-term disruptions. He pointed to early signs that AI may substitute for labor in some sectors, particularly for younger and less-experienced workers, and warned that if gains accrue mainly to the owners of AI and dominant firms, inequality could widen. He called for preparation through training, job creation and better connections between displaced workers and new opportunities. Barr cited labor's share of national income at a record-low 52.8% in the second quarter, a long-running trend that largely predates generative AI.

• Barr described AI-related displacement as relatively limited so far.
• He named younger, less-experienced workers as showing early signs of substitution.
• His agenda for preparation: training, job creation and job matching.

This is a policymaker's warning, not new data, and Barr didn't put a number on future job losses. What stands out is who he named: the workers trying to get a first foothold. For workforce boards making the case for early-career services and job-matching funding, it's a useful citation from a sitting Fed governor.

Impact: Emerging.

1010. Is It AI or Offshoring? Qantas and Vodafone Cuts Raise the Question Again (Recurring Theme)

Qantas said on November 10 that about 850 roles, roughly 3% of its Australian workforce, will be affected over the coming years under a seven-year partnership with Accenture. Some corporate services will move to Accenture, delivered mostly by teams in India, and "in time be transformed further with automation and AI," with the first changes expected by mid-2027. Unions and a Greens senator accused the airline of "AI washing," arguing the cuts are offshoring, according to Reuters; Qantas said it would consult unions and focus on redeployment. A day earlier, Vodafone Germany announced about 2,300 job reductions over two years as it folds customer service into its sales units and expands AI, amid a price war and falling revenue. Talks with employee representatives are expected to start in early 2027.

• Qantas's first phase covers finance, procurement, people and marketing functions.
• Most of the moved work goes first to Accenture teams in India, with automation to follow.
• Vodafone Germany is cutting about 2,300 positions as customer service merges into sales.

We've covered this question several times this fall, from FICO and HubSpot to eBay and Qualcomm. What's new here is the sequence Qantas spelled out: move the work to lower-cost staff first, automate later. For workers, the useful question in any "AI layoff" is where the work is actually going. "AI washing" is a claim, not an established fact, but it's a fair one to ask about.

Impact: Immediate.

1111. The Numbers: Claims Stay Low, and October Raises Matched Prices

Initial unemployment claims rose by 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 200,000 for the week ending November 7, the Labor Department reported on November 12, and the four-week average was 195,250. Continuing claims fell by 20,000 to 1,697,000. On November 10, BLS reported that real average hourly earnings were unchanged from September to October: nominal hourly pay and consumer prices both rose 0.4%. Production and nonsupervisory workers saw a 0.1% real gain. BLS couldn't publish its usual year-over-year comparison because October 2025 price data were never collected during last year's shutdown.

• Initial claims: 200,000; continuing claims fell to 1,697,000.
• A 0.4% raise in October was matched by 0.4% inflation.
• Production and nonsupervisory workers came out 0.1% ahead.

Low claims measure layoffs, not how hard it is to get hired. Read alongside story 1, these numbers describe a market where fewer people are filing, and the ones who do may soon be asked to prove more effort to stay eligible.

Impact: Immediate.

Bottom line

For workers and job seekers, this week's developments point the same direction: more is being asked of you, whether that's five logged job searches, AI fluency written into your job description, or a broader bundle of skills for a freelance client. Some new tools are on your side, too. In New York, you can now request your personnel file, and here in Monroe County, more than 860 planned jobs in optical manufacturing give a concrete target for training over the next year.

For employers and workforce organizations, the signal is that requirements are rising faster than openings. Gartner's deferred jobs, Payscale's pay lag and the proposed work-search rule all put more of the burden on individuals. Career centers will likely be where that burden shows up first, so it's worth using the comment period, mapping which services count as work-search activity, and preparing employers for personnel file requests.